| Thursday Night Season Opener:
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh - Nate picks Tennessee
Okay, so call it a homer pick. Call it illogical. But here's my thing. Okay, Pittsburgh was 6-2 at home last year. And yes, Pittsburgh destroyed Tennessee the last time the two teams played in Pittsburgh (Tennessee lost, 34-7 in 2005). And Tennessee also lost in their trip to Pittsburgh previous to that one in another prime time matchup (Tennessee lost by the same score, 34-7, in Week 7 of 2001). But looking at more recent, and thus, more relevant history, I am considering the fact that Tennessee engaged in a very physical battle with the Steelers in Week 16 of 2008 and came out victorious, 31-14. They also accomplished this with a starting defense nearly identical to this year's defense--that is to say, without Albert Haynesworth. Pittsburgh's weakness all throughout 2008--when they had one--was their offensive line. And from what I have seen, Pittsburgh did not take any steps to upgrade that line in the off-season and will return the same starters as last year (Starks, Kemoeatu, Hartwig, Essex, Colon). This one will be fun to watch... or at least it SHOULD BE, as these two teams nearly always make for violent, physical football. Tennessee's offense has been improved over last year's as they have added former Steeler Nate Washington to their WR Corps. While I will almost always, always, always give defending World Champions the benefit of the doubt--and especially at home--I'm not convinced that Pittsburgh was really ever all that much better than Tennessee last year, and I don't think Pittsburgh has improved in the areas they needed to. Simply put, Tennessee was a great team last year and appears to have improved at key positions (WR) and depth (DL, RB). Pittsburgh was a great team last year but does not have any clear indications of improvement on a weak OL.
Sunday:
Miami @ Atlanta - Nate picks Atlanta
I'll admit that I'm a big Matt Ryan fan. And I'll also admit that this recent rash of young, successful, seemingly phenom QBs in places like Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago (by way of Denver), and even New York (Jets) has got me hoping my team is in position to take the Next Big Thing at QB in next year's draft (read: Jevan Snead). But even if I wasn't sold on a second-year quarterback who never played like a rookie, I would still end up picking an Atlanta team that also featured one of the most dominating running backs in the league a year ago (1,699 yards, 4.5ypc, 17 TDs). Atlanta has also added red zone threat Tony Gonzalez at the tight end position meaning the play-action threat becomes even more effective inside the 20 now. Gonzalez is also paired up with speedy and often under-rated receiver, Roddy White, now entering his fifth season in the NFL and is coming off of back-to-back 80+ reception seasons (83 catches in '07; 88 in '08). White's numbers are all the further impressive when you consider that his yards-per-reception have been well over 14 yards. His 14.5ypc in 2007 were surmounted by his 15.7ypc last year. This is set up to be a very dynamic and potent offense. The Atlanta defense of a year ago was less than average (11th in points allowed/game, 24th in total defense), but some steps were taken to improve on that side of the ball with adding inside linebacker Mike Peterson from the Jaguars, cornerback Tye Hill from the Rams, and using their first five draft choices on defense, including defensive tackle Peria Jerry from Mississippi in the first round. Miami, on the other hand, while a fun team to watch and a bit of a nice Cinderella team to root for late in the season last year, is still a work in progress. They benefitted greatly from a division missing a quarterback named Tom Brady and another quarterback named Brett Favre imploding down the stretch; they also used the surprise of the wildcat offense to their advantage and caught defensive coordinators off guard early and often last year. I don't expect these same elements to present themselves again in 2009. Miami was probably more of an average team last season encountering--and taking advantage of--favorable situations. Their rebuilding must continue this year on both sides of the ball, and I don't find them ready to deal with an offense as potent as Atlanta's is poised to be in Week 1.
Philadelphia @ Carolina - Nate picks Carolina
Carolina always seems to me to be one of those trendy/sexy picks to go deep in the playoffs, regardless of how competitive the NFC South is that year--if the division is good, expect Carolina to be physical and rise to the top; if the division is bad, expect Carolina to have the talent and star power to outmuscle their competition. But it seems every year Carolina underachieves or struggles to realize their potential, whether due to injuries or just bad play. Carolina earned their hype a year ago and clinched their division with a 12-4 record earning some very key wins late in the season against Tampa Bay in Week 14 and New Orleans in Week 17. Carolina also returns one of the most dangerous running attacks in the league with the two-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Defensively they also return their most important player, Julius Peppers. Philadelphia has a bit of a tendency to start off slow (2-3 through the first five weeks in 2008, 1-3 in 2007). Considering Philly tends to get off to slow starts, and considering that the team has yet to reveal (or perhaps even fully decide?) how they intend to use Michael Vick and the tension/drama that has the potential to create (Donovan McNabb is, after all, a very sensitive soul), and their lack of depth at WR (track star DeSean Jackson notwithstanding), I'm leaning towards Carolina for this game. Above all else, it's a home opener.
Denver @ Cincinnati - Nate picks Cinci
Yikes, this is a tough one to pick. It feels almost like choosing between dumb... and dumber. I'm on the side of people in the country that think that Josh McDaniels is a bit of an egomaniac freak in love with his own ideas and doesn't really have any good ideas of his own and lost the team shortly after setting foot in Denver. Having said that, I really have no reason to pick either team this week. Cedric Benson doesn't impress me yet running the ball for Cinci; Carson Palmer isn't healthy; Cinci has all-star wideouts this year in Ochocinco (or is it OchoCinco?) and Coles, but they always had all-star wideouts that never got them anywhere; and their defense is as much a mystery to me this year as it ever was. In Denver you have an egomaniac at head coach, presumably Kyle Orton gets the start at QB, but health is a concern (and I expect Simms to take the job and run with it when he gets the chance); I couldn't name you their receivers outside of Eddie Royal (I don't trust Marshall and I don't presume his teammates really do either); and they have made some moves to improve their 29th ranked defense of a year ago in adding safety Brian Dawkins and linebacker Nick Griesen along with a handful of rookies as they transition to a 3-4 defense this year; Knowshon Moreno has the tools to become a very good back in the NFL, but he's not running behind a traditional Gary Kubiak or even Mike Shanahan offensive line; to date, I have seen nothing to make me believe Denver is gelling as a team. Between dumb and dumber, I'm going with dumb. Home team and all that jazz.
Minnesota @ Cleveland - Nate picks Minnesota
Brett Favre's value is at its max in the early weeks of the season. His value will begin declining as the season goes on; but for now, he will be a very valuable asset making play action with Adrian Peterson lethal with the burner Berrian on the outside (looking for points early in the season with Berrian in fantasy--woo-hoo!). Also, having said that, Cleveland coach Eric Mangini is only a slightly lesser clown than the aforementioned Josh McDaniels. I'm not a professional GM or talent-evaluator so my opinion matters very little, but I can still say that Mangini's "method" makes little sense. If there really is method to his "madness." I think we all know Quinn is going to be the starter opening day... but oooh, the suspense and difficulties of having to game plan for both Quinn AND Anderson. Right. By the way, what an ironic twist of fate that Mangini would have to square off against the quarterback that got him fired from his last gig in the season opener only 8 months later. Did the league intentionally plan that? For what it's worth, I expect Minnesota to be very good early in the season... but fall apart towards the end (see: 2008 New York Jets).
NY Jets @ Houston - Nate picks Houston
It's the home opener for the Houston Texans to begin with. This is also Rex Ryan's regular season debut as a head coach. It's also the regular season debut for New York's Mark Sanchez. And while this type of twin-debut worked out very nicely for Rex's team of a year ago in Baltimore with Harbaugh and Flacco (and in Atlanta for Smith and Ryan), such good fortune really is rare in this league. There are usually a few more bumps along the road. And most people who follow the NFL and the AFC South more specifically know that Houston has been a team quietly on the rise for the last year or two. Steve Slaton is the real deal, as is Mario Williams, as is Demeco Ryans, as is Andre Johnson. See, they got stars all over the place.
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis - Nate picks Indianapolis
I never really need much reason to pick Indianapolis over anyone (unless I should have to pick them over Tennessee, in which case there need to be SEVERAL reasons). But Jacksonville is not a good team. And this actually seems to be the first time when most prognosticators around the sport are acknowledging it, instead of hyping up a below-average team in the pre-season.
Detroit @ New Orleans - Nate picks New Orleans
I'm a fairly big fan of Jim Schwartz and am rooting for him and his success in the vacuous NFL black hole that is Detroit. Coming from Tennessee and branching out from under Jeff Fisher's legacy, I'm hoping he is the start of an NFL coaching legacy--like they always attribute to Bill Walsh and Mike Holmgren and now with Bill Belichick. Having said all that, I, as an interested football fan and operating with limited info, am really having a hard time understanding his decision to start off with Matt Stafford as his QB straight out the gate coming off of a 0-16 season. Schwartz already watched what can happen to a rookie QB who is given too much, too soon in his career (see: Tennessee-Young, Vince). And there is an urgency to win now if ever there was one in Detroit. Having said that, it makes substantially more sense to me to go with a trusty veteran quarterback like Daunte Culpepper who has had success throwing to athletic, superfreak wide receivers (see: Minnesota-Moss, Randy). The move is a curious one. Schwartz is risking destroying his young rookie quarterback before he ever has a chance to adjust to the speed of the NFL game (see also: Houston-Carr, David; Detroit-Harrington, Joey). Having said all this, Detroit is still my sentimental pick to win the NFC North. Crazy, you say? You betcha. I'm probably the only one saying it. But in my opinion, there's one team every year that reverses its fortune from the previous season. Schwartz could be the guy to instill a new attitude in Detroit. Detroit's line is still in need of repairing and did not have a strong defense to help keep the offense in the game (I can say this definitively without looking at any meaningful stats because Detroit was 0-16 last year). My guess is New Orleans will get up early on Detroit and the Lions will be forced to throw. Good luck, young Stafford.
Kansas City @ Baltimore - Nate picks Baltimore
Baltimore wins this one running away. I don't pick teams that fire offensive coordinators 10 days before their season opener. (Note: Don't worry, I wasn't going to pick Kansas City in this game had they kept their offensive coordinator).
Dallas @ Tampa Bay - Nate picks Dallas
Dallas, for all their glitz and glam with their new stadium, has flaws and weaknesses and will struggle to keep their head above water in the NFC East in 2009, probably the best division in the NFL. That being said, I'm not sure who Tampa likes at quarterback right now, but I believe they are going with Leftwich for the time being. Byron can be good when he has time... lots of time... and he's not on a pitch count (do you get the baseball joke?). But the real reason I'm not picking Tampa? I don't pick teams that fire their offensive coordinator 10 days before their season opener.
San Francisco @ Arizona - Nate picks Arizona
I've heard lots of talk about this improved San Francisco team and how they might legitimately challenge to win this NFC West division this year. I don't see it. Wide receiver is still a liability, and while I'll be the first guy to tell you, you don't need WRs to win in this league, it also doesn't help that your best quarterback is Shaun Hill and not a 1st overall draft pick heading into his fifth season. The defense may be a shining spot for the team this year as that is head coach Mike Singletary's area of expertise and they have some playmakers on that side of the ball (Patrick Willis and Nate Clements are already stars). But the Cardinals have every reason to be confident and continue building off of a season which saw them win their conference for the first time in franchise history and came within a miracle catch away from being called "World Champions." I can't say much about the Arizona defense right now (no access to their defensive depth charts and nothing stands out to me about their draft on that side of the ball), but suffice to say they have one of the most explosive offenses in football.
Washington @ New York Giants - Nate picks New York Giants
This one will not be easy. Washington's defense is no joke now that they've added Albert Haynesworth and will be pairing him up with the high-intensity rookie Brian Orakpo. This duo alone will be responsible for collapsing pockets and pressuring QBs--and there's still 9 other players on the defense! They add these two key players to a defense that already ranked 4th in the NFL in 2008 in total defense (288.8ypg) and 6th in points per game (18.5pts). I am also a very big fan of Washington's 2nd-year safety, Chris Horton. He's an athletic and opportunistic guy with good reflexes that can cover a lot of ground and lay some wood. Defending against the Giants is a bit easier now that they're without their most productive wide receiver, Plaxico Burress, and are desperately relying on unproven guys to step in and step up in the passing game--names like Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith (no, not the one from Carolina), Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, and Hakeem Nicks. Eli Manning, heading into his 6th NFL season, has never dealt with such a thin receiving corps. Harder still, New York is missing one half of a two-headed rushing attack from a year ago with Derrick Ward moving to platoon the runningback position down in Tampa. New York's strength will remain--for the time being--on defense, where they've suffered the loss of defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, but have beefed up even more on their D-Line (I didn't think such a thing was possible) and at linebacker, adding back a healthy Osi Umenyiora, Chris Canty from Dallas, Michael Boley from Atlanta, and rookie Clint Sintim (note: Boley is expected to miss the opener to serve a 1-game suspension for violating league personal conduct policies). In terms of executing with their available talent, I think these teams are pretty evenly matched and equal. This one boils down to home field advantage for me.
St. Louis @ Seattle - Nate picks St. Louis
I'm picking against the grain on this one. I'm really quite uncertain about Seattle at this point. They're another team who, like Carolina, gets lauded at the start of each season and is predicted to win an agreeably weak division (NFC West) and then sputters around in mediocrity. Plus, they're a West Coast team, I'm an East Coast writer so I don't hear too much buzz about the team. St. Louis continues my personal trend and belief that there is at least one team each year that reverses its outcome of the previous year and surprises the league. St. Louis is an even better candidate than my sentimental favorite, Detroit, because they actually do have a significant amount of talent stockpiled on the roster. Bonus Prediction: Kyle Boller (other sentimental favorite) steps in for an injured Marc Bulger at some point in the season (and you know it's going to happen at some point) and leads the team to the Super Bowl leaving Baltimore Ravens fans scratching their heads.
Sunday Night:
Chicago @ Green Bay - Nate picks Green Bay
Green Bay has the talent on the team to be successful. They have some playmakers on defense (Nick Collins took three interceptions back for touchdowns in '08) and have added defensive tackle B.J. Raji, and linebacker (and 'roid baby) Clay Matthews (Drink MusclePower Shakes!), they have a Pro Bowl quarterback, they have two very good wide receivers. Chicago has an underachieving defense still living off of a reputation it had earned several years ago and a pouty golden-armed quarterback who doesn't have any receivers to throw to. I like to root for Vanderbilt--really I do (sentimental college football favorite). But I just don't know how I feel about Vanderbilt North: The Adult Years. Primetime home opener in Green Bay? You betcha I'm picking the Pack.
Monday Night Football - AFL LEGACY MONDAY NIGHT GAMES
Buffalo @ New England - Nate picks New England
This matchup is the first of the (regular season) "Legacy Games" the NFL will feature in 2009, pitting two of the original eight founding clubs of the AFL in 1960. This one should be a treat to watch aesthetically to see the Patriots don their throwbacks with red jerseys and white helmets against the Buffalo Bills in their retro look (which is indisputably a much nicer looking uni than Buffalo's current 'pajamas' look, but that's a conversation for a later time). However, in terms of competition, this game won't be much to look at. Tom Brady should finally be back under center for New England for the first time in a year and provided that he doesn't suffer any lingering after affects from his torn ACL of a year ago or his bruised shoulder suffered earlier in the pre-season, the Patriots should encounter little opposition from a pretty feeble Buffalo squad. Defensively speaking, Buffalo ranked in the bottom 3rd in points allowed a year ago and in the bottom half for total defense (Yards Per Game). But for me, that's the least of their concerns; personally, I don't pick teams that fire offensive coordinators less than 10 days before the start of a season. Buffalo was going to be pretty bad with the offense they were installing; they're not going to become dramatically better installing a new offense with a week to go before they have to play their first game. And if ever you needed another reason why New England should win this game (and I don't think you do), this is New England's home opener. Better teams just don't lose at home in home openers... very often. San Diego @ Oakland - Nate picks San Diego With a win in this week, San Diego goes 1-0 on the season and is half way toward clinching the division. I think LaDainian runs wild on the Raiders, too (yay for having LT on my fantasy team!). |